Who will win the Premier League title in 2022-23? Which clubs will qualify for the Champions League and which will drop out to survive in the Premier League this season? Never fear, our trusty supercomputer has processed the data for you.
Our Premier League season predictions: The quick shots
Premier League favourites: Liverpool and Manchester City
Top 4: Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea
Relegation: Bournemouth, Fulham and Nottingham Forest
We are going to let you in on a secret. We gave the supercomputer a break over the summer, with a working holiday in warmer climes during UEFA Women’s Euro 2022, where it successfully predicted England would win the title.
Don’t panic, he’s back home now and has been hard at work giving us the Premier League season predictions for 2022-23, with data on how he thinks England’s top-flight standings will finish. by position, as well as the odds of winning. the title, qualifying for the UCL and being relegated to the Championship for each club.
Premier League title prediction
The supercomputer can’t see past another close battle between Liverpool and Manchester City in 2022-23, with Jürgen Klopp’s Reds edging out Pep Guardiola’s side for the title.
Liverpool have a 49.7% chance of winning the Premier League this season, 2.7% more than Man City (47.0%). It would mean just a second league victory in the Premier League era, having lifted the trophy without their fans at Anfield in 2019-20, but, more importantly, their 20th top-flight English title in history. That would put them level with Manchester United for the most league wins since the English Football League began in 1888.
Who will qualify for the Champions League?
At 99.3%, Manchester City and Liverpool are considered the top four shoo-ins by the supercomputer in 2022-23. But who will join them in qualifying for the UEFA Champions League via a place in the Premier League top 4?
Helped by smart summer recruiting, the fact that Harry Kane and Son Heung-min are staying at the club and their manager Antonio Conte has been one of the best club managers across Europe in recent times, Spurs are being offered the third-best chance of getting UCL Football for 2023-24, at 70.1%.
They are followed by Conte’s former club, now managed by Thomas Tuchel – Chelsea. The Stamford Bridge side have a 62.5 per cent chance of finishing in the top four this season based on the supercomputer’s analysis of the data.
It means Manchester United (22.6%) and Arsenal (22.0%) could face more disappointment this season in their quest for Champions League football, with less than a one in four chance of finishing in the four first.
The three outside bets for a top four based on supercomputer analysis are Newcastle United (5.0%), West Ham United (4.9%) and Leicester City (4.1%).
Who will be relegated from the Premier League?
It’s bad news for supporters of the three clubs newly promoted to the Premier League in 2022-23 – the supercomputer doesn’t fancy your chances of staying in the top flight for another season.
Bournemouth are offered the best relegation chances (45.0%), just ahead of Nottingham Forest (44.5%) and Fulham, winners of last season’s league title (43.8%).
History suggests it might be possible for one of those sides to remain standing, however. The only Premier League season in which all three promoted clubs were relegated was 1997-98, when Bolton Wanderers, Barnsley and Crystal Palace were all dismissed directly.
With that in mind, fans of Southampton (34.2% relegation chance), Brentford (31.9%) and Leeds (31.2%) should be nervous about the campaign ahead.
The last season the three promoted teams stayed in place was in 2017-18, when Newcastle, Brighton and Huddersfield avoided dropping. This is the only time in the past 10 seasons that this has happened.
Predicted Premier League positions in 2022-23
- Manchester City
- Tottenham Hotspur
- Manchester United
- West Ham United
- Newcastle United
- Leicester city
- Brighton and Hove Albion
- crystal palace
- Wanderers of Wolverhampton
- Leeds United
- Nottingham Forest
How does the supercomputer model work?
• Stats Perform’s league prediction model estimates the likelihood that teams will finish at each position in the competition. So we can see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, be it relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) using betting market odds and team rankings from Stats Perform. Odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performance.
• The model takes into account the strength of the opponents using these probabilities of match results and simulates thousands of times the remaining matches of the competition. By analyzing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
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