Tropical Storm Ian forms in Caribbean, projected to make landfall in Florida as major Category 3 hurricane

Tropical Storm Ian formed Friday morning in the Caribbean Sea, and much of the Florida Peninsula is already included in the cone of uncertainty for the system which is likely to become a major hurricane in the days to come.

Ian joins three other systems that currently roam the Atlantic Basin, including Post tropical cyclone Fionawhich will hit Atlantic Canada this weekend, Tropical Storm Gaston near the Azores, and Tropical Storm Ermine over the Far Eastern Atlantic.

Late Friday evening, the system was located east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. A westward or west-northwestward movement is expected through early Sunday. A northwesterly turn is expected late Sunday, followed by a north-northwesterly turn by late Monday.

“On the forecast track, Ian’s center is expected to cross the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or over the Cayman Islands on Sunday evening and early Monday.” , said the NHC. “Ian will then approach western Cuba on Monday.”

What are the expected impacts of Tropical Storm Ian in the Caribbean?

According to the FOX Forecast Center, the primary concern for Tropical Depression Nine is heavy rain for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic.

The highest rainfall amounts are forecast for western and central Cuba, where 6 to 10 inches are expected with isolated amounts of up to 14 inches. Jamaica and the Cayman Islands could see 4 to 8 inches of rain, with localized amounts of up to 12 inches.

In southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic, between 2 and 4 inches of rain are forecast, although locally higher totals of up to 6 inches are possible.

Depending on the exact track and intensity of Tropical Depression Nine, there could also be tropical storm-force (over 39 mph) or hurricane-force (74 plus mph) winds in these areas.

Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to track in a general eastern direction from the Gulf of Mexico and could be near the Florida peninsula by the middle of next week.

An overwhelming majority of computer forecast models suggest the storm is likely to be a major hurricane as it heads into the continental United States. However, forecasts for newly developed tropical cyclones are difficult, so don’t be surprised if the forecast for Ian undergoes several changes – some of which could be significant – over the next few days.

Storm track indications from the various computer forecast models currently range from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to near or off the Atlantic coast of Florida, so everyone in that general area should start their preparations now. in case of a potential hurricane next week. .

So the bottom line is that it’s still too early to know exactly where this system is heading, but be aware that there is a growing threat of a major hurricane affecting the southeastern United States near the middle of the next week.

If it stays on its current track, the system is expected to drop five to 15 inches of rain over parts of central Florida. Torrential rains and flooding are possible.

Current models show the system transitioning into a Category 1 hurricane by early Monday. On Wednesday, models show it becoming a Category 2 hurricane over Cuba before moving into Florida Wednesday morning as a major Category 3 hurricane.

Much of the FOX 35/FOX 51 viewing areas could experience potential wind gusts of 40 mph to 73 mph from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

RELATED: Weather deteriorates in Canada as powerful Hurricane Fiona approaches

The FOX 35 Storm team will be following this every step of the way to keep you posted.

Meanwhile, the FOX 35 Storm team is also tracking several other systems in the Atlantic.


Late Friday, Fiona was located east of Halifax, Nova Scotia with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and is expected to bring hurricane conditions to Canada overnight.

“On the forecast track, Fiona’s center will cross eastern Nova Scotia overnight and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday morning, then cross Labrador and the Labrador Sea on Sunday,” the NHC said.

| FOX 35 Orlando Hurricane Center |


Gaston is heading for the central Azores. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rain are expected over the western and central Azores tonight and Saturday.

Gaston is expected to turn southeast on Friday with tropical storm conditions affecting the westernmost Azores islands. The storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.

A gradual weakening is expected in the coming days.


Tropical Storm Hermine formed over the far eastern Atlantic. As of late Friday afternoon, it is located east-northeast of the Cape Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

“Some strengthening is possible through Saturday, with weakening expected on Sunday, and Hermine could turn into a residual low on Monday,” the NHC said.


Another area of ​​low pressure is located several hundred kilometers west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Slow development of this system remains possible over the next few days as it drifts northwest or north over the central tropical Atlantic. On Friday, the chances of development over the next five days are 30%.


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